8/17/2023 0 Comments First cobalt stock![]() Both traditional (e.g., superalloys and magnets) and emerging (e.g., power batteries) end uses of cobalt are considered, while the latter has a higher resolution (e.g., different purposes and battery chemistries) to enable discussion on technological progress. Here, we aim to answer this question by simulating historical and future global cobalt stocks and flows with regional resolution on major economies (i.e., China, the U.S., Japan, the EU, and the rest of the world (ROW)) based on dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) (see modeling framework in Fig. However, the extent to which battery and recycling technology progress will relieve the global and regional cobalt demand–supply imbalance, particularly considering the spatiotemporal variations in different world regions, remains poorly understood. There has been a growing body of literature on global and national cobalt material flows 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, trade links 39, 40, demand forecasting 41, and recycling potential (mostly of lithium-ion batteries) 42, 43, 44, 45. When more EVs and batteries reach their end of life (EoL), secondary cobalt provision through recycling will be essential to supplement the primary supply 30, 31. Indeed, as the price of cobalt has fluctuated (e.g., it tripled from 2016 to 2018) and environmental and social concerns about cobalt mining in the DRC 26 have increased, the prospect of battery development with less or even no cobalt has gained increasing attention in recent years 27, 28, 29. The two most widely discussed strategies for addressing such supply risks are battery technology development and progress in recycling 22, 23, 24, in addition to further mineral exploration and trade diversification 25. However, global cobalt mining and refining are very unevenly distributed (e.g., 70% of mine production came from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and 67% of refining occurred in China in 2019 20, 21), which raises enormous concerns about future demand–supply imbalances among governmental and industry decision-makers. Such an escalating demand is expected to continue due to the fast diffusion of electric vehicles (EVs) to combat climate and pollution challenges in the coming decades 19. The global cobalt demand, for example, increased by more than 5 times between 19, and almost half of the global cobalt use in 2019 was for batteries 18. Therefore, understanding the demand for such critical materials and exploring mitigation strategies for potential supply risks are essential for ensuring a green and low-carbon future 16, 17. 11, China 12, the EU 13, Japan 14, and Australia 15 due to their potential geopolitical supply risks and the importance of the renewable energy transition. ![]() ![]() Both lithium and cobalt are deemed critical materials by major economies such as the U.S. In particular, while the decarbonization of the transport sector can benefit from sustainable fuels such as electrofuels and biomethane 8, battery technology, which depends fundamentally on critical materials such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel, is widely deemed indispensable in renewable energy storage and automobile electrification 9, 10. While renewable energy and low-carbon technology transitions are imperative to achieve the climate neutrality and post-COVID-19 green recovery ambitions of many countries 1, 2, such transitions require various types and significant amounts of critical materials (e.g., rare earth for magnets, platinum for catalysts, and lithium for batteries) 3, 4, 5, 6, 7. Our results reveal varying cobalt supply security levels by region and indicate the urgency of boosting primary cobalt supply to ensure global e-mobility ambitions. However, the cobalt supply shortage appears inevitable in the short- to medium-term (during 2028-2033), even under the most technologically optimistic scenario. We show that cobalt-free batteries and recycling progress can indeed significantly alleviate long-term cobalt supply risks. ![]() Here, we address this gap by simulating historical (1998-2019) and future (2020-2050) global cobalt cycles covering both traditional and emerging end uses with regional resolution (China, the U.S., Japan, the EU, and the rest of the world). ![]() While battery technology and recycling advancement are two widely acknowledged strategies for addressing such supply risks, the extent to which they will relieve global and regional cobalt demand–supply imbalance remains poorly understood. In recent years, increasing attention has been given to the potential supply risks of critical battery materials, such as cobalt, for electric mobility transitions. ![]()
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